The Fat Lady Has Not Sung: Latest Official RNC Delegate Count Shows Romney Only Halfway There

The latest official delegate count from the Republican National Committee gives Mitt Romney 573 delegates and Rick Santorum 202 delegates, out of the 1,034 delegates which have been at stake. A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to win the nomination in the first round. Since there are a total of 2,286 delegates which will be awarded, the primary season is still not quite halfway over, and Romney is only halfway to the mark.

A lot has been made of Romney winning Wisconsin, and that on this basis Santorum should drop out of the race. However, it is a pipe dream to think that Wisconsin (or Pennsylvania, for that matter) will be in the GOP column in November, unless the election is a complete blowout. The real story is that Romney has yet to win a state in the Bible Belt or the Deep South, apart from Virginia, a state where only he and Ron Paul were on the ballot, and that apart from Nevada, Idaho, Virginia, and his home state of Massachusetts, Romney has been unable to get even 50% of the vote. (Santorum broke 50% in Missouri and Kansas, and got 49% in Louisiana.)

The basic fact is that the nomination process is still only half over. Likely, Santorum will do poorly in the next few primaries, as they are not red or even purple states. Next on the docket are Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The only state Santorum has a reasonable chance in is Pennsylvania, but Romney is already pouring millions of dollars into negative advertising there in an attempt to make him the most reviled person to ever call the place home. If Santorum can withstand this barrage and if conservatives do not lose heart, then in May there are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virgina, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky, and then Texas. Under normal circumstances, Santorum should win all of these states except Oregon. This is, of course, contingent upon conservatives not losing heart.

Will conservatives succumb to a candidate who is trying to buy the election, who seems to have no guiding principles, who holds up social conservatives in disdain, and who has run the most negative campaign in history in an attempt to destroy conservatives and other Republicans to further his own ambitions? Or, will we continue to hold out for something better?

While there is no clear path for Santorum to get the nomination on the first ballot, there is a clear path towards denying a first ballot coronation of Mitt Romney, and thereby being able to either strike him from the ticket in favor of someone else, or put him in such a vise that he will not dare throw the pro-life movement under the bus after the convention, as seems to be his game plan.

The choice is really up to us. I am not altogether convinced that Romney can or even should become president unless he starts upholding conservative principles, and starts to present a clear vision for what he wants to do as president. Thus far, he has only been conservative in the sense that many conservatives are pro-business. That is really not good enough. Why should we be put into the position where we have to settle for this?

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6 Responses to The Fat Lady Has Not Sung: Latest Official RNC Delegate Count Shows Romney Only Halfway There

  1. Nguyen says:

    ABC and Santorum would want every one thinking that the Fat Lady has not sung and that song that people heard were played by Romney’s camp.
    The truth is Mitt Romney will get 1144. No one else can get 1144. 4/24 will be big, as PA does not look like a sure win for Santorum now.
    http://nguyench3.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=508&action=edit

  2. If the Republican party nominates anyone other than the winner of the popular vote in the primaries, that candidate will have zero legitimacy going into the general election. Can you imagine the media circus around a brokered convention? Rooting for a brokered convention is rooting for an Obama win. Nominees were chosen in backroom deals by party elites decades ago; today they’re chosen by the voters. Whoever gets the most votes should be the nominee, period.

    • John Scotus says:

      Currently, Romney has only 40% of the popular vote in the GOP primaries and caucuses, which means that a plurality of GOP voters have not voted for him. Unless the other candidates drop out, this should still hold to be true by convention time.
      Romney has 4,595,303 votes to Santorum’s 3,209,129 votes. This does not put Santorum himself in a strong position at the moment. However, this can change. On CNN some political pros were speculating that if Santorum can keep up his current pace, he may well be the popular vote winner, even while losing the delegate math. While this may seem farfetched, looking at the primary map it is possible, provided that Santorum does not falter.
      Since the Florida primary, Santorum has received 32% of the vote, versus 17% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, and 40% for Romney. Gingrich has not been able to match or exceed his average vote since March 16, in Mississippi (31%) and Alabama (29%). Meanwhile, Santorum has been able to consistently match–or nearly match–his average percentage of the vote in nearly all the states. In Wisconsin, for example, he got 38% of the vote. Even in Maryland, which Santorum was not expected to do well in, he was still able to get 28%. If this trend were to continue, then we would expect Gingrich to range between 5-15% in the remainder of the primaries, with Santorum getting the bulk of the support that Gingrich was getting prior to the Florida primary. We should expect Santorum to get at least 40-50% of the vote in a southern state, with Romney holding steady at around 30%. Meanwhile, in blue states Romney will continue to pick up about 45-49% of the vote, and Santorum and Romney will fight to a draw in the Midwest. Essentially, even though Romney will likely pick up more delegates, they would pretty much split the vote in the remaining contests, if these contests follow the current pattern. If Gingrich falters still more and Santorum were to do even slightly better in April and May, and then get a clear victory in Texas, then suddenly he might well be ahead in the total vote count.
      All of this depends upon a number of factors, not the least of which is conservatives not losing hope, and coming out to support Santorum rather than giving up.

    • Nguyen says:

      You’re exactly right. That is why I don’t like to hear about brokered/open convention. I lost respects for both Gingrich and Santorum since they have been planning for an pen convention ’cause they knew they could not get the majority of the delegates coming into Tampa. Romney will get 1144.
      In terms of majority of votes, it depends on the turn outs the rest of the way if Santorum stays in. But as we have since in WI, conservative voters splitted evenly between Santorum and Romney.
      For the sake of beating Obama and not dragging this on, the Fat Lady has sung.
      The left-wing, Obama-supported media and Santorum would want you not to believe it.

  3. Pingback: RNC count: Romney passes halfway mark in delegate chase – The Hill’s Ballot Box « Ye Olde Soapbox

  4. Pingback: Ben Swann (Reality Check) Santorum Delegate Count a Lie?! Paul Winning? | 2012: What's the 'real' truth?

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