The GOP’s Advantage In 2012–Why The Polls Are Bunk

We’ve talked here and here about how all the polls showing Obama ahead are almost certainly wrong. Based on both past history and logic, the current polls do not make any sense. As Datechguy ably demonstrates, national elections have always had a close correlation to party registration, with the caveat that GOP presidential candidates (and GOP candidates in general, but to a lesser degree), have always outperformed GOP party registrations by a large margin when it comes to national elections.* Since 2004, the Democrats have not won a national election without being ahead of the Republicans by more than 6.9% in party registrations.

Courtesy of Rasmussen, here is a chart showing respective party registrations for this year:

Rasmussan 2012 party registrationsWhile there has been some shifting around in party registrations, no doubt because of registration drives, the overall trend has been for the GOP to be ahead. Indeed, the Democrats have not been ahead of the GOP in party registrations since March of 2011, and have been on average underwater on party registrations since November of 2010.

However, here is the sampling for the most recent national polls:

Obama polls' oversampling 2012As Datechguy points out, to be accurate the polls should be using samples that reflect party registrations, but they have not even come close. For example, a recent PPP poll of Virginia had a sample of Democrats +3 and had Obama ahead of Romney by 3 points. However, party registration in Virginia is GOP +3, which means that instead of Obama being ahead in Virginia, the two candidates are probably tied.

Why would pollsters behave this way? Some are just intellectually lazy. Since the time of FDR, they have always oversampled Democrats, because this fits in with their unexamined assumptions about America. However, indications are that other pollsters are wanting to use their polls to drive election results. They want Republicans to get discouraged and stay home in November, and to harm the GOP by making it look like Romney is flailing, while Obama is doing fine.

The answer? Stop believing their lies, and show up to vote.

*This has come about because some registered Democrats–especially in the South–are reluctant to leave their party, but are in fact often much more conservative than the Democratic candidate for president and some candidates for national office.

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One Response to The GOP’s Advantage In 2012–Why The Polls Are Bunk

  1. Pingback: » The GOP's Advantage In 2012–Why The Polls Are Bunk | The Tree …

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